Risk

In 1995, a certain McArthur Wheeler walked into two Pittsburgh banks and robbed them in broad daylight, with no visible attempt at disguise.

He was arrested later that night, less than an hour after videotapes of him taken .from surveillance cameras were broadcast on the 11 o'clock news.

When police later showed him the surveillance tapes, Mr. Wheeler stared in incredulity. "But I wore the juice," he mumbled.

Apparently, Mr. Wheeler was under the impression that rubbing his face with lemon juice, based on the fact that the liquid that was used in the fabrication of secret writing, made him invisible to videotape cameras.

Behind this act of stupidity there is a set of strong psychological theories.

The main one is that people tend to hold overly confident views of their abilities in many social and intellectual domains. The authoritative Dunning and Kruger in a masterful study suggested that this overestimation occurs because people who are unskilled in these areas not only reach the wrong conclusions and make unfortunate choices but are not able to recognise what they are doing anyway.

In a range of studies, Dunning and Kruger found that participants scoring in the bottom quartile on tests centred on humour, grammar, and logic grossly overestimated their test performance and ability.

Although their test scores put them in the 12th percentile, they estimated themselves to be in the 62nd.

Several analyses linked this misjudgement to deficits in the capacity to distinguish accuracy from error.

Paradoxically, improving the skills of participants, and thus increasing their metacognitive competence, helped them recognise the limitations of their abilities.

There are three main influences behind what is often regarded as just human nature.

Firstly, in many domains in life, success and satisfaction depend on knowledge, wisdom, or being savvy in knowing which rules to follow and which strategies to pursue. This is true not only for committing crimes as in the case of the unfortunate bank robber, but also for many tasks in the social and intellectual domains, such as promoting effective leadership, raising children, constructing a solid logical argument, or designing a rigorous psychological study.

Secondly, people differ widely in the knowledge and strategies they apply in these domains with varying levels of success. Some of the knowledge and theories that people apply to their actions are sound and meet with favourable results. Others, like the lemon juice hypothesis of McArthur Wheeler, are imperfect at best and wrong-headed, incompetent, or dysfunctional at worst.

Perhaps more controversial is the third point, the one that was the main focus of Dunning and Kruger.

They argued that when people are incompetent in the strategies they adopt to achieve success and satisfaction, they suffer on two levels.

1) Not only do they reach erroneous conclusions and make unfortunate choices, but
2) their incompetence robs them of the ability to realise it.

Instead, like Mr. Wheeler, they are left with the mistaken impression that they are doing just fine.

As Charles Darwin wisely noted over a century ago,"ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge"

There are a number of Psychtests available to be able to judge whether you could be suffering from the Dunning Kruger Effect.

In one such test there are a series of questions to be answered according to your own perception of risk and behaviour.

Typical questions include;

Whatever plans you make, there is always something unexpected that will interfere with them.
I can minimise the consequences of risk-taking by planning ahead and preparing for each outcome.
Others consider my lifestyle wild and exciting.
I have control over the outcome of my work, even if the project is difficult or demanding
Rules are meant to be broken
I like my music loud and crazy rather than soft and serene.
I am willing to take a chance at failure for the sake of innovation.
I would take a risk if there were something in it for me.
At an amusement park, I automatically gravitate toward the highest, fastest, most intense rides.
You cannot fool your destiny
Potential negative consequences keep me from taking action.
Before making  decisions, I try to anticipate factors that could influence the outcome
I am a "chicken".
I am afraid that something unexpected might ruin all my plans.
I check important projects carefully for mistakes before submitting them.
Before making a risky business decision, I do some research to determine whether it's the right path to take.

In such a test situation I scored 34 of of a possible 100 which places me in the boring category, or in psycho-babble, the following

Sensation-seekers thrive on new, intense, and varied situations. Their personalities are associated with risk-taking because sensation-seeking drives individuals to seek out highly stimulating experiences, which often include risk. Sensation-seekers have strong positive reactions to intense stimuli. While there are many constructive aspects of this personality type, those with this trait often take more risks, are more impulsive, and become bored more easily. In certain ways, a sensation-seeking personality is an asset - such individuals thrive on stress, action, uncertainty, and challenge. In other ways, it is a liability - they may take outlandish risks. Low sensation-seekers, on the other hand, are reliable, can handle monotony, and prefer to sleep on their decisions. They avoid novel and stimulating experiences.

Your relatively low score in sensation-seeking indicates that you don't often enjoy new and stimulating experiences. While you may take risks on rare occasions, you usually choose the well-travelled path. 

You probably prefer to work in a stable environment in which changes are made gradually, and with ample warning. 

You don't enjoy surprises, and rarely seek out situations with uncertain outcomes. 

Your risk-taking behaviour is probably fairly limited.

Although pretty well deflated over my low rating in the main study I did find some comfort in the fact that I scored 63 in the category of "Comfort with Ambiguity"- that is just so the real me.

That it is spooky.

(sources; IgNoble Award Winners 2000- Dunning and Kruger. Psychtests)