I should cocoa

It begins now.

Plan ahead for the year 2020.

It may seem an age away but like most crises of which we are forewarned the time will fly.

Build that vault, convert the cellar, establish something with a cool and constant temperature.

Immediately start to fill that space with what you feel will be enough to cope with perhaps one of the greatest threats to mankind in history. No, I am not talking about a meteorite strike, the fracturing of the world's tectonic plates, nuclear winter, a complete breakdown in the social and economic fabric across the globe, the onset of an ice age or even, amazingly, that a zombie apocalypse could actually happen.

I do not rule out the aforementioned but the real crisis in five years time will be the predicted shortage of cocoa beans from which to make that favourite of sweet treats- chocolate.

The approaching problem appears to be a combination of factors.

On the ground where cocoa beans are grown there have been recent spates of disease including the cocoa pod borer moth.

In their wisdom some Governments of bean producing nations have tampered with nature in attempts to genetically clone  strains more resistant to disease, quicker to grow and at a higher yield but have in fact messed with the normal cycle of cultivation.

Global warming has brought with it an inconsistency in the weather conditions needed for the cocoa bean crop to flourish.

It seems that growing the stuff is in fact an arduous task in physical hardship terms and many farmers are making the conscious decision to go into rubber and corn as their primary agricultural practice.

To add insult to injury Buyers of cocoa have been forcing the farmers to sell at rock bottom prices. This has reduced the possibility of re-investment with the consequence of ageing trees and fewer pods.

As often happens in cultivation where a crop is in its death throes there is a sudden upsurge in output and ironically the 2014 harvest in Ivory Coast, the biggest producer, was the largest in history at 1.8 million tonnes, some 10% up on the previous year. However, other producing nations have had their own difficulties of stagnating harvests so that across the globe the result has been falling supply of the raw material.

This downward trend is in direct contrast to a massive hike in demand for chocolate in emerging and traditional markets.

This has led to a 25% increase in prices for cocoa beans in recent months not helped also by the impact of the Ebola outbreak in Western Africa. Since 2012 the price has rocketed by 6o plus percent to £2000 per tonne. The actions of speculators in global commodities has also distorted market forces with one trader, whimsically referred to as "Chocfinger" responsible for buying up 7% of the world's stock of cocoa beans for £658 million.

All of the foregoing relates very much to the supply side of the commercial equation relating to trade in chocolate.

On the other side, the two economic powerhouses of China and India show signs of accelerating demand for chocolate.

A consumer pool of 1.4bn Chinese has yet to come on stream and it is held that one billion citizens have never tasted chocolate because of the lack of chilled distribution, local market rather than supermarket shopping, fears of an alien taste and relative expense. In contrast to the average 8kg chocolate gorging by UK citizens per year the Chinese currently consume only 100 grams but even that represents a doubling in recent times, mainly from a younger and more aspirational part of the population.

The Indian market similarly has been restrained by the lack of domestic refrigeration but this is being rapidly addressed under the expansion of wealth with industrial growth.

Demand from western nations for chocolate is still strong mainly due to a shift from cheap, low cocoa content foil wrapped bars to what is termed "posh choc" such as nicely packaged and high price brands of 70% cocoa content.

In the UK one of the big four retailers has shelves stocked with 23 varieties of breakfast cereals containing chocolate in varying degrees. The affluent and retro-looking over 35's in the population have been particularly taken by a new cereal based on the Toffee Crisp Bar which has sold well.

Those in the business of analysis of trends are predicting that by the fateful 2020 there will be a shortfall of 1 million tons of cocoa beans prompting the fears of the chocolate crisis. There are some options but lovers of choccy will resist Carob substitute and rationing and not be too happy with the prospect of our favourite products getting smaller or having to pay significantly higher for the privilege.

The cocoa shortage is looming if we are to believe the pundits but surely if there is a prospect for good profitability then market forces will bring more growers and producers into play and we need not worry too much.

Of course, I could just be in denial clutching tightly in my sweaty palm my last Dairy Milk before I make my way into the amply stocked chocolate fallout shelter.