Monday, 14 January 2019

Turn up the thermostat

The term Cold War refers to the state of hostility that existed between the countries in the  
Soviet Bloc and those allied with the United States of America and which lasted for 45 years  
from the end of the Second World until 1990. It generally described the atmosphere of  
threats, propaganda and political games but fell short of all out open warfare. 

The Cold War has produced the longest period of stability among World Powers over the  
last quarter of a century but it cannot really be described as an era of true peace as globally  
there has continued to be conflict and loss of life.  

Peace is not the correct word where there has been a series of devastating and destructive                     
Proxy Wars with the Cold War Alliances not far away in the background even if the conflict is  
limited in terms of territory and actual length. These have included in Korea and Syria. 

There has also been an ongoing Arms Race with nuclear and conventional weapons being  
developed and stockpiled. 

It should not be forgotten that there has also been revolution, ethnic, religious and civil  
wars, regime change and ideological conflicts.  

Conventional warfare has continued in many parts of the world and although Nuclear War 
 has been close to breaking out, by accident, technical issues, misinformation and mischief  
there has been no World War Three to date. 

Some lessons may have be learned from the Peace Settlement after the First World War  
which saw Germany, its people and allies punished and which led to the Rise of Hitler as  
revenge for this humiliation and the aggression of the Nazi’s from the 1930’s onwards. 

The difference in the Peace after 1945 was that two Super Power Nations emerged, the USA  
 and Russia. They had not until that time been natural enemies being on opposite sides of  
 the world , self sufficient and independent in trade and resources and with a remote border  
 only in Alaska.  

The two Powers were very compatible in 1945 in their military strength and the existence of  
 what is called the Military Industrial Complex although from the very different ideologies of  
 Capitalism and Communism, as in Private and State Enterprise. 

Early on in the Cold War there were potential war situations for conventional military such  
 as the Berlin Blockade and where Sovereign States now behind the Iron Curtain showed 
  rebellion. The Cold War created an artificial division of the world into two distinct groups. 

World War Three was a main subject of discussion, it was planned for but the important  
factor was that the Super Powers were stable in their respective regimes with no dictator 
 type leaders. 

In the Cold War Era the Nuclear Deterrent was a major influence. The prospect of mutual  
annihilation in a nuclear war did help to keep a lid on potential escalation of many  
situations.  

 Both alliances did continue with technology and weapons such as Satellites, the U2 Spy  
Plane, Inter Continental Ballistic Missiles and advances in intelligence gathering.  
Developments such as the neutron bomb which killed humans but left buildings and  
infrastructure intact threatened to cause imbalance but both sides could spy on and  
evaluate each others capabilities which caused reassurance.  
The Cold War developed its own set of Rules between the Super Powers which although not  
written down in a formal Agreement were very much understood. 

These included; 

  1. Respect for each others areas of influence. For example the Soviet Bloc occupied  countries and those in which the USA had interests such as Western Europe and South America were kept free of direct interference. 

  1. Direct Military Conflict was to be avoided. Proxy Wars instead were waged 

  1. Nuclear Weapons were to be used as a last resort only 

  1. Any unstable regional arrangements were tolerated such as the Berlin Wall, Korean  Partition and Cuba 

  1. Leadership of the Cold War Powers was not to be undermined. 

In all there existed in the Cold War not a true peace but an uneasy one that could have  
escalated easily into World War Three and an assured Nuclear Destruction of Mankind.  

With the publication of previously secret Cold War Documents in recent years the avoidance  
of Nuclear War appears to have been down to luck and the action of individuals rather than  
a determined outbreak of Peace.

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